A recent report about the digital divide (PDF) states, that a digital divide is more likely to happen in societies or region where the economic differences are already huge. (Show the first Paragraph of the introduction).
"Many assume that the digital divide - the large numbers of people who are not connected to the Internet - is small, shrinking, and rapidly becoming irrelevant. It is not. The term "digital divide" refers to multi-dimensional inequalities in Internet access and use, ranging from the global level, to nation states, to communities, and to individuals. The divide is here for some time to come. It is large, multifaceted, and, in some ways, it is not shrinking. Moreover, the divide is socially patterned, so that there are systematic and meaningful variations in the kinds of people who are on and off the Internet. These patterns vary between nations and over time, so last year's divide often does not necessarily resemble this year's, and Country A's divide does not necessarily resemble Country B's. Indeed, it is more accurate to use the plural "digital divides" because the nature of the digital divide varies within and between countries, both developed and developing. There is no one digital divide; there are many divides." You may also read this article in Telepolis (german) Via Schockwellenreiter

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